My prediction for 2015 is that Facebook will implode.  I base this on intuition, and a business analysis of recent business decisions by Facebook, that affect usage both for social and business users.  Also, I predict that the stock price will be adversely affected if some of these changes are not renegotiated.  The stock price for Facebook at the close, adjusted on December 8, 2014 was $76.52, on December 23, 2014 was $80.61, and on January 2, 2015 $78.45.  I predict the trend will be downward, with maybe an occasional upward fluctuation.

A month ago I was just another Facebook user, not even a Facebook connoisseur.  I have a profile, but I set it up primarily to interact with social groups and discuss topics of interest.  Then, December arrived and I became  noticeably dissatisfied with changes that were occurring while utilizing Facebook.  When I began research, and looked for help from Facebook and for answers, there were none.  No one was at home to “take it in the Face” as some have described to me.

December 8, 2014, Facebook tweaked their Graph Search that was first distributed in the summer of 2013.  Also, changes were made to provide better mobile functionality.   Originally, Graph Search let users find photos and other bits of information previously shared with friends and family.  You could search throughout Facebook for the information, and was not limited to your specific group of friends.  It was remarked by CEO Mark Zuckerberg earlier this year:  “Over the next few years, as we make progress on building our search. . . .I expect us to deliver even greater utility for people.”

Graph Search has been heralded as an enhanced search for users.  The tweaking of Graph Search has now limited your search to posts within your group of friends.  Photos can also be recalled, but only within your group of friends.  The search is much more restrictive, it is not global.  The tweaking of Graph Search has been described  as “a step toward helping you tap into the experience and perspectives of your friends.”

Also, around December 8, 2014, Facebook quietly dropped Microsoft Bing from Graph Search.  For instance, prior to that if you could not find the person, location, or information within Facebook, you would be directed to Bing where you have web search results to assist you.   This partnership between Microsoft Bing and Facebook, first introduced in January, 2013, and was seen as a potentially important way that Microsoft could compete with Google.  That option is no longer available to Facebook users.  Although Facebook is not a default search engine, that referral to Bing did give you options that you no longer have.

Now, I like having friends on Facebook, but I don’t normally have the desire or need to search through their prior posts.  I do have the need for global searches, and Facebook redirects you to posts like a school marm tells her restless students to return to their seats.  I  do not like Facebook taking my choices from me, and directing me into options I mostly do not want to search for, nor have a need to go back and relive.  I see Facebook becoming authoritarian in the searches and more inner-driven.  Facebook is loosing interaction with the web and is a stand-alone empire.  I do not see this as optimal for users or business social media.

A step further was when I requested help with the search issues.  I got no answer and no responses.  Others who had left similar messages had not gotten answers either.  Some generalized miscellaneous comments, none a direct quote, but consensus were:  (1) “I hate the new search, also.  Give us back the Graph Search.”  (2)  “Now I feel FB has restricted searching abilities, just not everyone’s.  Was I using search too much?  Am I being punished?  I didn’t sign on to FB for these annoyances.” and (3) “I thought changes in FB were supposed to improve things. . you are NOT improving things at all, just making  your users frustrated and angry.”

My business use for Facebook Graph Search was to give parties notice and pendency of court proceedings to protect their rights, as I work with the court system.  When parties are not locatable within Facebook, you would be referred to web searches.  This was tool that used in my service to give parties information so that they might protect their legal rights.  Facebook has severed that option for me.  It would not always be useful, but it was a tool available to me.

Facebook business decisions are also having an effect on e-commerce, that will shift the emphasis away from Facebook as a marketing tool.  Beginning this month January, 2015, Facebook is bringing new volume and content controls for promotional posts.  The News Feed will have controls for the number of ads a person sees and the quality of those ads.  This could affect marketers in limiting their  ability to promote their marketing campaigns.  Marketers are looking for other ways to interact with their online audience, without Facebook.  This could lead to a lessened reliance on Facebook ads, and thus a decrease in revenue to Facebook.

These five factors, the limitation on Graph Search, the dismissal of the Web search through Bing or other search engines, the lack of response to user inquiries, volume and content controls for promotional posts, and a general inward perspective of Facebook being a world into itself, will have a negative decline on the stock price of Facebook.  Users, both social users and e-commerce users, will be moving away from Facebook and into other venues of social media for their needs.  Newer does not always mean a better way is accomplished.  I am open to change, but I want it better, not frustrating and limiting and non-responsive.  I predict that unless business decisions are not reevaluated by Facebook, 2015 may indeed be the year of the of the goat.  The propensity for good fortune will not be very good for those born in a year of the Goat, and they will easily become involved in financial difficulties. Therefore, they should adopt conservative strategies.